January 2026 marks the fifth‑warmest on record globally, although Europe and Northern America experienced a major cold snap, and the gap between extreme cold events in large regions and the broader pattern of global warming continues to widen. The conclusion is based on data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Research demonstrates that singular cold-weather events no longer indicate that we are experiencing long-term climate warming.

Arctic Jet Stream Drives Northern Hemisphere Cold

An Arctic jet stream brought a deep freeze to much of Europe and North America in January. The Arctic’s been heating up fast, and that’s messing with the jet stream, weakening it, making it loopier, and letting icy polar air spill way further south than usual.

Europe shivered through its coldest January since 2010, with average land temperatures dropping to –2.34°C, and snow piled up across Fennoscandia, the Baltics, eastern Europe, Siberia, and even the central and eastern U.S., disrupting travel and daily routines. Despite harsh winter conditions in some northern hemisphere locations, the global average surface temperature for January 2026 remained high due to exceptionally high temperatures over the southern hemisphere and Arctic regions.

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Southern Hemisphere Scorched by Severe Heat

Whereas the north froze, intense summer heat dominated the Southern Hemisphere. Regions such as southern South America, northern Africa, Central Asia, Australia, and Antarctica experienced temperatures well above average, leading to heat waves and wildfires.

According to the analysis by the World Weather Attribution consortium, climate change made wildfires in southeastern Australia during the second week of January five times more likely and 1.6°C hotter. Chile and Argentina, among others, experienced high maximum temperatures.

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Oceans, Sea Ice, and Extreme Rainfall Signals

Despite cold snaps on land, sea surface temperatures remained unusually high. The global average SST between 60°S and 60°N was 20.68°C, fourth on record, and parts of the North Atlantic, including the Norwegian Sea, recorded their warmest January SSTs ever.

Meanwhile, Arctic sea-ice extent was 6% below average, the third-lowest for January. In contrast to extreme cold, heavy rain poured over Europe, southern Africa, and parts of the Americas, promoting flooding with the most devastating floods in Mozambique and neighboring countries, killing at least 200 people, and these indicators help to show why January 2026 marks the fifth‑warmest on record, despite a cold snap in Europe and North America, even amid dramatic regional weather extremes.

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