India’s renewable energy capacity surges as it has established itself as a global leader in expanding renewable energy capacity in recent years. This growth has been driven by ambitious targets, increased investment, and the imperative to decarbonise the electricity sector. Nevertheless, a substantial gap between the level of clean energy being produced and the level of renewable capacity being built remains. Such a gap, highlighted in a latest study by the Climate Action Tracker, questions the sustainability of India’s transition.

A Renewable Boom on Paper

India has made significant progress in expanding its renewable infrastructure. As of 2023, the nation had installed around 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity. Ten GW comes from biofuel, 45 GW from wind, 47 GW from hydro, and about 73 GW from solar. These figures show that renewable energy accounts for 37% of the country’s installed capacity and includes both utility-scale projects and rooftop solar initiatives.

To fulfill the 1.5°C target outlined in the Paris Agreement, the investigation examined the developments in India’s electricity industry during the previous five years. This increase fits in nicely with India’s goal of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 and its climate objectives. India’s renewable energy capacity surges, but generation struggles to match.

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The Generation Gap

Although capacity has grown quickly, actual generation from renewables is still not up to par. Despite having a 37% capacity share, the research found that renewables only comprised around 18% of the power generated. For comparison, over the previous five years, the average yearly generation from wind and solar was around 11 GW. With an annual average output of 3.9 GW, coal, on the other hand, remained dominant despite growing international pressure to phase it out.

India’s electricity production doubled from 937 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2010 to 2,058 TWh in 2024. However, coal’s percentage of the power mix rose from 69% to 75% during the same period. On the other hand, renewable energy increased more moderately, from 15% to 20%.

Why Isn’t Generation Keeping Pace?

Several variables cause the discrepancy between renewable generation and installations.

Extreme heat waves are one of the leading causes of the growing power demand. Power use increased by 14% in May 2024 alone compared to that same month the year before. Because the growth in renewables was not fast enough to match the boom, imports and consumption of coal and fossil gases increased.

Weather uncertainty has added to the complication. Seasonal fluctuations, inconsistent wind directions, and reduced expected solar radiation have resulted in erratic renewable generation. Limitations in storage capacity remain a major hindrance. Fossil fuel sources remain the primary energy source to meet demand during overcast or nighttime, since energy cannot be stored in large enough quantities.

There are still transmission issues. Many renewable energy projects are situated in isolated locations, and generating potential is frequently squandered without strong grid infrastructure to evacuate electricity effectively. India’s renewable energy capacity surges, but logistical and infrastructural gaps remain.

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A Climate Commitment Under Threat

The discrepancy between output and capacity significantly impacts India’s climate pledges. The analysis pointed out that while the absolute production of coal and renewables has increased over the last five years, their respective proportions in the power mix have been relatively stable.

If present trends continue, India risks becoming reliant on fossil fuels. An additional 24.2 GW of new coal capacity is anticipated between 2027 and 2032, on top of the 27 GW already under construction or in early planning. According to the research, this coal infrastructure may soon become a stranded asset in a 1.5°C compatible future.

Although India’s 2030 renewable energy ambitions align with climate goals, the nation’s unclear plans to phase out natural gas and continue expanding its coal industry convey conflicting messages.

The Way Forward

India must remove structural obstacles to fully realize its renewable energy resources’ potential. Investments in battery storage and infrastructure upgrading are crucial to controlling intermittency and lessening dependency on coal during periods of high demand. Generation patterns may be evened out via better forecasts and varied renewable portfolios, including integrating solar, wind, and hydro.

Reforming policies is equally vital. Grid curtailments and delayed payments to renewable developers deter future investment. According to the estimate, India would need foreign financial support to reduce coal’s power-generating share to 17–19% by 2030 and completely eradicate it by 2040.

The tracker states that 52–65% of India’s energy supply must come from renewable sources by 2030 and 91–96% by 2040 to stay on track with the Paris Agreement. Building capacity alone won’t be enough; it must also be converted into clean, reliable electricity. India’s renewable energy capacity surges, but reliable output must match it to meet these targets.

Final Thoughts

Although India is making great strides toward a renewable future, the growing discrepancy between installed capacity and actual generation shows serious structural issues. As the nation’s renewable energy footprint grows, grid infrastructure, storage, and fossil fuel policy reforms must keep up with the pace of change. India’s renewable energy capacity surges, but the transition will remain incomplete unless this growth is equaled by generation and supported by infrastructure.

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