India’s milk supply is under threat due to prolonged heat and changing climate conditions that are beginning to affect one of India’s biggest industries. India is the largest producer globally, with nearly 239 million tons produced in 2024; however, due to record-breaking temperatures this year, farmers are facing poor yields, higher costs, and declining quality in milk and other dairy products. With the dairy industry providing livelihoods for millions of farmers and being a staple food source used by many people every day, and being impacted by climate-related stresses, producers and consumers of dairy products could experience significant disruptions.

Is India’s Dairy Sector Vulnerable to Climate Change?

• Threats for the World’s Largest Milk Producer: India accounts for about 25% of the world’s milk output, but due to climate disruption, India’s position is being threatened because of the adverse effects of rising temperatures on livestock.
• Impacting Millions of Farmers: According to a recent CEEW study, millions of farmers relying on cattle raising are experiencing the impact of climate change on their livestock. The buffaloes and cross-bred cattle, constituting the most significant portion of Indian milk-producing livestock, are particularly vulnerable to heat stress.
• Economically Important Sector: The annual value of milk production in India exceeds the total value of rice and wheat combined. Hence, any drop in milk production will have substantial economic implications.
• Livelihood Dependence: More than 450 million people in about 90 million households are linked to the dairy industry. Climate change-induced stress results in losses for all concerned.

Also Read: India Proposes Rules To Allow Higher Ethanol-Blended Fuels In Vehicles

How Do Heat Waves and Fodder Crises Affect Milk Production?

• Heat Stress Decreases Yield: With temperatures above comfortable limits, cows decrease their food consumption and focus on cooling themselves down. According to research, the output yield can be reduced up to 25.8% due to heat stress, as well as decreased quality of products.
• Decrease in Long-Term Production: Research predicts that in the coming decades, milk production per cow will be reduced by 25% in arid and semi-arid regions, such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra.
• Fodder Shortages Aggravate the Problem: Climate change has caused monsoon unpredictability, affecting the availability of fodder. In certain locations, prices for fodder have risen three times, which forces farmers to decrease the number of animals or even sell them at lower prices.
• Increased Feed Expenses and Prices: Feeds already account for 60-70% of total costs, and prices for milk have become increasingly expensive due to increased input costs and production shortage because of weather effects. As of 2023, prices for milk were up by more than 12%.

Also Read: Tropical Forest Loss Eases in 2025 from Record High, Report Shows

What Does This Mean for India’s Food System and Future?

The deep ties that Indian society has with dairy products include nutrition, culture, cuisine, and livelihoods for many thousands of people. Milk is an integral part of Indian life; you can find it in a large variety of foods, from daily chai to paneer (Indian cheese) and sweets, to ghee (clarified butter) served at nearly every celebration. Unfortunately, as experienced in the summer of 2025 during extreme heat, supply issues have arisen due to extreme weather events, leading to reduced milk collections and higher prices for consumers.

India’s milk supply is under threat, highlighting a critical need to put in place climate-resilient strategies to not only protect the dairy industry but also to support the millions of people who depend on that industry for their livelihoods.

Also Read: Sewage Pollution Puts Coral Reefs At Risk, Even In Protected Marine Areas