With approximately 174 million eligible voters registered to exercise their votes across 824 different districts and over 219,000 polling locations, this year’s Assembly election cycle will be historic, given the volume of voters participating. However, India’s April election faces a new climate reality, and according to the India Meteorological Department, April temperatures were consistently above normal, with April 2022 higher than 1.36°C.

Also, as erratic precipitation levels range from significant droughts in India (i.e.,20%) to excessive flooding in 2023 due to rising sea levels, we will see an increase in climate change, which is now impacting the conduct of free, fair, and credible elections.

A Changing Pre-Monsoon Pattern

India’s April election faces a new climate reality, influencing how people vote democratically. Traditionally, April is known for the expected periods during the pre-monsoon transition from the dry to the monsoon season. However, the extreme weather patterns, such as hot weather, random thunderstorms, and rapid increases/decreases in humidity due to climate change, are negatively impacting this transition.

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How Is Climate Reshaping India’s Election Landscape?

Specifically, in the eastern and northeastern parts of India, extreme weather patterns have created greater numbers of rapidly formed storms called “Kalbaisakhi” occurring just before the arrival of the monsoon season.

Additionally, the southern Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala are facing numerous problems resulting from high wet-bulb temperatures, which create physiological conditions where people cannot cool themselves adequately, causing increased rates of heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

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Growing Threats: Heat, Storms, and Human Health

Severe weather events have ceased to be mere inconveniences and have become quantifiable risk factors in elections.

• Heatwaves may reduce voter turnout, particularly among older and frail citizens.
• Thunderstorms and lightning interfere with the polling system and transport networks.
• Floods and waterlogging impact the accessibility of polling stations in rural and flood-prone areas.
• Polling personnel and security officers face higher health threats.

Official figures reveal that lightning has emerged as the biggest killer of Indians due to weather conditions, surpassing floods and heatwaves. These statistics show that environmental dangers are worsening during critical election periods.

Experts, including meteorologists from Skymet Weather, have noted that climate-driven discomfort is likely to discourage voters, especially around midday. Thus, it becomes evident that India’s April election faces a new climate reality.

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What Are Authorities Doing to Adapt?

The Election Commission of India is beginning to include climate considerations in its election plans:

• Longer polling times (beginning as early as 7 AM) to evade intense heat
• Polling station surveillance in real-time to control crowds effectively
• In-home voting options for senior and disadvantaged voters
• Enhanced infrastructure preparedness in areas vulnerable to storms

O.P. Rawat, former Chief Election Commissioner of India, has also raised concerns regarding the ecological impacts of elections, such as the excessive use of plastics and energy from fuel-powered political campaigns.

“One Nation, One Poll,” among other proposals, might significantly alleviate environmental burden by limiting logistical and ecological costs, while conducting elections during colder months (November-January) could be beneficial.

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The Scientific Basis for the Change

Scientific studies indicate that warming of the Indian Ocean is one of the primary factors responsible for changing pre-monsoon dynamics. Studies conducted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) suggest that increased ocean surface temperature has caused:

• Increased humidity levels in the atmosphere
• Alterations in the pattern of convection
• Increased occurrence of storms

“The Indian Ocean is warming much faster than any other tropical ocean basin,” according to Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist. This has resulted in instability in the climate system, with extreme weather events no longer being an anomaly but a norm.

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Why This Is Important for the Future

As the intersection between climate change and elections becomes increasingly complex, a pertinent issue arises: Should climate readiness be a priority when planning elections?

Given that the severity of extreme weather will likely increase in the coming years, India would have to:

• Reevaluate its election schedule
• Create climate-proof facilities
• Utilize weather predictions in its polling plan
• Encourage environmentally friendly campaign practices

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A Democracy in Transition

India’s April election faces a new climate reality, affecting how we vote; it is no longer an isolated phenomenon, and the first step toward developing a climate-resilient democracy is to recognize this fact.

In order for India’s largest democracy to ensure that every citizen can vote safely, freely, and effectively, no matter what the weather might be, climate considerations must be incorporated into the planning process for future elections across this country.

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FAQs

1. How does climate change influence Indian elections?

Climate change is responsible for rising temperatures, irregular precipitation patterns, and harsh weather conditions that affect voter participation and security and the conduct of elections.

2. Define a wet-bulb temperature and its significance.

A wet-bulb temperature is an indicator of the level of heat and humidity. An excessive wet-bulb temperature may interfere with the body’s ability to regulate heat, resulting in heatstroke during voting.

3. What measures have been taken by India to mitigate climate threats in elections?

India’s Election Commission has adopted early voting periods, real-time surveillance, and home voting policies. Plans to alter the schedule of elections are being considered.

Also Read: Humid Heatwaves Intensifying Across India, Scientists Find