India sees the earliest southwest monsoon withdrawal in 10 years. The withdrawal process from western Rajasthan began on September 14, three days before the customary date of September 17, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This change follows the season starting earlier than usual, with the monsoon season beginning on May 24 rather than June 1. Although other regions of India have experienced catastrophic floods and abundant rainfall, the uneven distribution of rainfall has left parts of the east and northeast in deficit this year.

Uneven Rainfall Distribution Across India

India sees the earliest southwest monsoon withdrawal in 10 years, and this monsoon performance demonstrates striking disparities in rainfall patterns. Regional differences have been substantial, despite the nation as a whole experiencing 7% above-normal rainfall as of September 15.

• East and Northeast Deficits: Just four states—all in the historically rainy east and northeast—saw inadequate rainfall. At 44%, Meghalaya has the largest deficit, followed by Arunachal Pradesh at 40%.
• Excess in Dry Regions: Among all the states in India, Rajasthan, one of the driest, experienced the most rainfall, 68% above normal. An unexpected weather trend in the chilly desert was reflected in the Union Territory of Ladakh, which reported an astounding 413% excess rainfall.
• States with Surplus Rainfall: While 18 states and union territories received rainfall within the normal range, 12 states and UTs—six of which were in northwest India—recorded excess rain.
• District-Level Impact: About 20% of districts had inadequate or significantly inadequate rainfall, 33% had excessive or significantly excessive rain, and 47% reported normal rainfall.

These numbers demonstrate how India’s climate is changing, with simultaneous occurrences of floods and drought-like conditions in various areas.

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Ongoing Weather Activity Despite Withdrawal

Rainfall activity is still occurring in the central and southern regions of India, despite the southwest monsoon beginning to move away from northwest India. The leading cause of this is the development of cyclonic circulations and low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal and inland regions.

• Recent Systems: On September 14, a low-pressure system was active over Telangana and the nearby city of Vidarbha; however, it weakened the next day.
• Future Outlook: According to IMD projections, another low-pressure system is anticipated to develop in the Bay of Bengal on or around September 20. This system may bring further rainfall to areas of eastern and central India.
• Cyclonic Influences: In addition to these systems, cyclonic circulations and troughs are helping to maintain rainfall activity outside of the northwest as the monsoon retreats.

The twin realities of early withdrawal and continuing rain-bearing systems highlight the intricacy of India’s monsoon dynamics. The northwest is entering the post-monsoon season, but late-season weather disturbances continue to affect other areas.

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