The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Issues warning for above normal rains in September, with heavy precipitation likely in northwest India and neighbouring areas.

“Above normal rainfall is likely over major parts of India, except for some areas in extreme northwest India, many parts of the southern peninsula, northern Bihar, and northeastern Uttar Pradesh, as well as most of northeast India, where below normal rainfall is expected,” stated IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

The IMD Issues warning for above normal rains in September, with 109 percent of the long-term average of 167.9 mm. Northwest India received 253.9 mm of rainfall in August, the second-highest total since 2001.

The Met Department stated that numerous areas in the Himalayan foothills and northeast will suffer ‘below-normal rainfall’ as most low-pressure systems migrated south of their regular position. At the same time, the monsoon trough remained south of its typical position.

The reports came as Cyclone Asna bore down on Gujarat, causing severe rain and flooding. Over the next 24 hours, the deep depression in the Arabian Sea is predicted to drift west-northwest over the Northeast Arabian Sea and away from the Indian Coast.

“Kachchh has seen extremely heavy rains in the last 24 hours…Gujarat has got 882 mm of rain since June 1, which is 50% above normal…Saurashtra and Kachchh have also had above-average rainfall…”According to IMD scientist Ramashray Yadav, light to moderate rain is likely in Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar today.

Given the wet August, if the rains in September follow the latest estimates, the second half of the monsoon season may see excess rains, which will be good news for India’s farm sector and the economy.

The government weather forecaster also predicted that September would be warmer than usual, with above-normal maximum temperatures in most portions of the country, except some areas in northwest India, south peninsular India, and some pockets of east-central India, which are expected to have normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.

Most of the country will see above-average minimum temperatures, except a few scattered pockets in northwest India, the Himalayan foothills, and south Peninsular India, where minimum temperatures will be normal to below normal.

The equatorial Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state, indicating that El Nino, which typically reduces monsoon rains in India, has passed. However, forecasts indicate that La Niña, which increases monsoon rains in India, is more likely to occur near the end of the monsoon season in September.

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