Hurricane season in the US has officially begun, and scientists are predicting a particularly active year for storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on May 23 that there is an 85% chance of “above-normal” activity this season.

NOAA expects 17-25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these, eight to 13 are likely to become hurricanes. Four to seven of these hurricanes could turn into major hurricanes, which are classified as Category 3, 4, or 5, with winds reaching 111 mph or higher.

Erik A. Hooks, the deputy administrator at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, stressed how crucial it is to be prepared. “Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” he said. Hooks highlighted that storms are already bringing additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding, and hail. He urged people to take a proactive approach to handle the increasingly challenging climate landscape. This approach can significantly impact how quickly people can recover after a disaster.

Hurricanes rank as some of the most expensive natural disasters in the United States. Experts warn that storm-related damage is likely to increase as storms grow more severe. NOAA pointed to “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean” as a key factor for the expected surge in tropical storm formation.

A separate forecast from Colorado State University supports NOAA’s predictions. Researchers there expect an “extremely active” hurricane season in 2024. This is due to record-warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. On average, water temperatures across the tropical Atlantic are about 1 degree Celsius, or 1.5 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than normal. Phil Klotzbach explained that these warmer waters mean more fuel for storm formation. “The tropical Atlantic right now is record warm,” he said. “That means more fuel for the storms that are trying to form.”

Given the conditions, residents in storm-prone areas are advised to start their preparations early. “Now’s the time to prepare and have a plan in place,” Klotzbach advised. “You don’t want to be making these preparations at the last minute.”

NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory also noted that global warming could intensify hurricane activity. Potential effects include sea level rise leading to more coastal flooding, higher rainfall rates, and more intense and rapidly strengthening storms. The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions added that warmer sea surface temperatures could increase tropical storm wind speeds, potentially leading to more damage if they make landfall.

As the Hurricane season in the US progresses, being informed and prepared can greatly improve safety and recovery.

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