In 2003, four-year-old Rayan Mohamed and her family fled the Somali Civil War, embarking on a perilous nine-day journey across the country in search of safety. They moved from city to city, hoping to find peace, but safety proved elusive. Eventually, they ended up at the Awbare Refugee Camp in neighbouring Ethiopia, where they planned to spend only one night. That night turned into seven years as the hope of returning to their homeland faded. Finally, in 2014, Mohamed and her family were granted asylum and relocated to Syracuse, New York.

For Rayan, those seven years in the refugee camp were defined by stifling monotony and uncertainty. In one of her poems, she writes, “Waiting for answers that may or may not come, yearning for something that exhausts our wishes.” Yet, amidst the hardship, she found solace in the women of her family—her mother, grandmother, and sisters—whose close bond provided the emotional resilience she carries with her today.

Rayan’s story is unique, but it is also part of a larger, rapidly growing global phenomenon: climate migration. While her family fled a war-torn country, the seeds of that conflict were partly sown by environmental degradation. In East Africa, climate stressors like drought and resource scarcity have long driven instability, making the region highly vulnerable to conflict and displacement.

The Rising Tide of Climate Migration

According to recent reports, the number of people displaced by environmental factors could surpass one billion by 2050. This staggering figure paints a picture of a world where climate change is increasingly pushing people out of their homes—through floods, droughts, rising sea levels, and more subtle shifts in the environment.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) estimates that since 2008, environmental hazards have displaced an average of 21.5 million people per year. This number includes those fleeing acute disasters like hurricanes and wildfires but also those affected by slower-moving crises like desertification and rising sea levels.

In Bangladesh, for example, rising sea levels and recurring cyclones are forcing mass migration from the coast, while in Syria, a prolonged drought from 2006 to 2011 contributed to internal displacement and eventually fueled the Syrian Civil War.

Also Read: Real-World Impacts of Climate Change on Marginalized Communities

Beyond the Immediate: Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier

The term “climate refugee” is often used to describe people displaced by a single, acute event—like a flood or wildfire—but climate change acts as a threat multiplier in more complex and subtle ways. It worsens existing vulnerabilities, including conflicts over land, food, and water resources.

In Rayan Mohamed’s case, her family fled the civil war in Somalia. But beneath the political violence, environmental factors like drought had already contributed to resource shortages and tensions, creating a fragile state where conflict could easily erupt. As climate change intensifies, these types of complex migration stories are becoming more common across the globe.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Bank have both identified climate change as a significant driver of future migration. In regions like the Horn of Africa, where livelihoods are tied to increasingly unpredictable rainfall and shrinking agricultural yields, people are being forced to migrate not only to escape conflict but to find sustainable environments to live in.

Also Read: Challenges in Recognizing Climate Refugees: The Legal Void

The Complexity of Climate Migration

Understanding climate migration requires recognizing that displacement is not always a straightforward consequence of one event. As Badr and Nordquist, who work with young climate migrants, point out, “Displacement stories are more complex when you think about the roots of them.” People don’t always leave because of a single storm or drought; migration is often driven by a complex interplay of economic, political, and environmental factors.

For example:

• In Ethiopia, where Rayan’s family sought refuge, land degradation and climate variability have made rural livelihoods increasingly unsustainable, forcing people to migrate to overcrowded urban areas or across borders.
• In Kenya, clashes over pastureland and water resources in regions like Turkana have increased as climate change worsens drought conditions, pushing pastoralist communities to seek greener pastures elsewhere.

Also Read: Ecological and Gendered Asymmetries in Climate-Induced Displacement

A Call for Action: Addressing Climate Migration Holistically

As the world faces increasing climate displacement, there is an urgent need to rethink how we approach migration and environmental policies. Currently, there is no international legal framework to protect climate refugees. While the 1951 Refugee Convention provides protections for people fleeing war and persecution, it does not extend to those displaced by environmental factors.

In the absence of legal protections, governments and international organizations must work to develop climate adaptation strategies that address the root causes of migration. This includes:

• Investing in disaster resilience and sustainable infrastructure in vulnerable regions.
• Supporting local economies to reduce resource-driven conflicts exacerbated by climate change.
• Developing global frameworks that recognize the rights of climate migrants and provide them with legal avenues for resettlement.

Conclusion: The Human Face of Climate Migration

Rayan Mohamed’s story reminds us that behind every statistic of climate migration is a human face—a family struggling to survive in the face of forces beyond their control. Her resilience, like that of millions of others, is a testament to the strength of those who are displaced. But as climate change continues to drive migration, we must ensure that the world does more to protect these vulnerable populations.

Addressing climate migration requires not just emergency responses but long-term planning and international cooperation. The time to act is now.

Also Read: How Climate Change is Reshaping Life for Pacific Indigenous Peoples