Global solar panel waste could reach between 297 million and 402 million tonnes by 2060, according to a study published in the journal Nature, creating a major recycling challenge as solar installations built during the current renewable-energy boom reach the end of their working lives. Researchers estimate that annual solar-panel waste could rise from around 500,000 tonnes in 2030 to more than 19 million tonnes in 2060. Yet the growing waste stream could also become a valuable source of silver, silicon, copper, aluminium and other materials, with recycling potentially delivering hundreds of billions of dollars in economic benefits while avoiding billions of tonnes of carbon emissions.

The findings come from an international research team involving scientists from universities in China, Australia, Hong Kong and Sweden. The researchers modelled 1,708 scenarios across 32 regions, considering solar deployment, panel lifespans, material prices, recycling technologies and cross-border movement of discarded modules.

Global Solar Waste Set to Rise Sharply

Solar panels generally remain operational for around 25-30 years. As the huge number of systems installed over the past decade begins reaching retirement, the volume of discarded panels is expected to accelerate.

China could account for 36-40% of global discarded panels by 2060, while India could generate another 26.8-35.2 million tonnes. The geographical pattern is also expected to change. Until around 2040, high-income countries are projected to produce more than half of the retired modules, followed by a growing contribution from developing economies.

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Recycling Is Expensive Today

The economics of solar recycling currently remain difficult. In 2020, materials recovered from one tonne of discarded panels were estimated to be worth between $132 and $304, while recycling costs ranged from $342 to $2,550 per tonne, depending on the technology.

Researchers expect this balance to change considerably. By 2040, the value of recoverable materials could reach about $457 per tonne, while recycling costs could fall to roughly $56 per tonne.

The difference is largely linked to technology improvements and the value of materials such as silver and silicon, which require more sophisticated recovery processes but can substantially improve the economics of recycling.

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Three Recycling Routes Compared

The study examined mechanical, thermal and chemical recycling.

• Mechanical processing generally involves dismantling and shredding panels before separating their components.
• Thermal and chemical techniques are more complex and can recover a greater range of valuable materials, although they require additional energy and investment.

The researchers found that broader adoption of advanced thermal recycling could produce around $671 billion in net economic benefits by 2060 without international waste transport, while preventing approximately 2.44 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions.

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International Recycling Could Increase Returns

Transporting retired panels to countries with established recycling infrastructure could make the system even more efficient.

For example, waste generated in regions without large recycling facilities could be transported to China, where existing industrial capacity could process the modules at lower cost. Under the most favourable scenario, international movement of waste could increase the cumulative net benefit to $936 billion and prevent up to 3.32 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions.

However, there is a downside. The countries operating recycling facilities would capture much of the revenue from recovered materials, potentially leaving developing countries with the waste but not the economic benefits.

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Falling Subsidies Could Help Build the Industry

The researchers suggest temporary government support could help overcome the early-stage economics of solar recycling. Their modelling found that declining subsidies, which gradually reduce as recycling becomes commercially viable, could be more efficient than permanent financial support.

Permanent subsidies could cost roughly 9.5 times more, according to the study.

Carbon-market support, meanwhile, could worsen regional inequality if funding disproportionately flows toward countries that already possess advanced low-carbon recycling technologies. The researchers estimate this could widen the economic-benefit gap between regions by about 4%.

The projected growth in global solar panel waste therefore presents two very different possibilities. Without investment, millions of tonnes of retired panels could become a growing disposal problem.

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