According to a study by IPE Global and Esri India, the number of heatwave days in major Indian cities is expected to double by 2030. Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Patna, Surat, Bhubaneswar, and Thane are the cities most impacted. Using district-level geographical and temporal analysis, the research, Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate, constructs heat stress scenarios for 2030 and 2040. A spike in extreme rainfall and double heatwave days is a central concern of the study’s projections.

The scientists attribute the rise in unpredictable rainfall to prolonged hot conditions. They note that heat waves may occur in most Indian cities in March, April, and May. IPE Global‘s Mohanty said that, aside from days without rain, the monsoon season is beginning to resemble a prolonged summer.

43% Rise in Extreme Rainfall and Growing Unpredictability

According to the report, severe rainfall events nationwide are expected to increase in severity by 43%. The increasing tendencies of heatwaves are directly associated with these developments. The researchers emphasize that by 2030, there will likely be several continuous and irregular rainfall occurrences in eight out of ten Indian regions.

They note that extreme weather events have become far more frequent, intense, and unpredictable in recent decades. According to the study, the number of days with intense heatwaves between March and May and June and September increased by 15 times between 1993 and 2024. The 19-fold increase seen in the previous ten years alone is very alarming.

By 2030, heat stress-induced irregular rainfall is anticipated to affect over 75% of districts in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur. A spike in extreme rainfall and double heatwave days is predicted to be central to these climate disruptions.

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Urgent Need for Climate Risk Infrastructure and Local Leadership

The study suggests establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to provide real-time risk assessments and early warnings. It also draws attention to the necessity of financial tools to lessen the effects of excessive rains and heat stress.

The authors also recommend that district disaster management committees designate heat-risk champions. This action would expedite local climate resilience initiatives and concentrate and prioritize heat-risk reduction solutions at the district level.

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