Climate change threatens the future of Kimchi, South Korea’s cherished cabbage dish, according to scientists, farmers, and manufacturers. Rising temperatures are reducing the quality and quantity of Napa cabbage used to make the ubiquitous meal. Napa cabbage thrives in milder conditions and is typically grown in mountainous areas where temperatures during the peak growing season rarely exceed 25 Celsius (77 Fahrenheit). According to studies, warmer weather caused by Climate change threatens the future of Kimchi to the point where South Korea may be unable to cultivate Napa cabbage due to the rising temperatures.

“We hope these predictions don’t come true,” plant pathologist and virologist Lee Young-gyu stated. “Cabbage likes to grow in cool climates and adapts to a very narrow band of temperatures,” Lee said. “The optimal temperatures are between 18 and 21 Celsius.” Farmers and Kimchi producers are already feeling the effects of climate change in the fields and kitchens, both commercial and domestic.

Other vegetables, such as radish, cucumber, and green onion, can make spicy, fermented Kimchi, but cabbage remains the most popular. Lee Ha-yeon, an Agriculture Ministry-designated Kimchi Master, described the effect of increased temperatures on the produce, stating that the heart of the cabbage “goes bad, and the root becomes mushy.”

“If this trend continues, we may have to give up cabbage Kimchi in the summer,” said Lee, whose title represents her contribution to food culture. According to government figures, the area of highland cabbage farmed last year was less than half of what it was 20 years earlier, at 3,995 hectares vs 8,796 hectares. According to the Rural Development Administration, a governmental agricultural think tank, climate change scenarios predict that the farmed area will drop substantially over the next 25 years to just 44 hectares, with no cabbage grown in the highlands by 2090.

Researchers attribute crop shrinking to rising temperatures, unpredictable heavy rains, and pests that become more difficult to control during warmer and longer summers. A fungal infection that wilts the plant has also caused problems for farmers because it appears so close to harvest.

Climate change threatens the future of the Kimchi business in South Korea, which is already competing with lower-cost Chinese imports primarily served in restaurants. Customs data released on Monday indicated that Kimchi imports through the end of July were up 6.9% this year to $98.5 million, virtually entirely from China and the highest ever.

So far, the government has depended on massive climate-controlled storage to keep prices stable and prevent shortages. Scientists are also working to create crops that can flourish in warm climates and are more resistant to huge changes in rainfall and diseases. However, farmers such as Kim Si-gap, who has spent his whole life working in the cabbage fields in Gangneung’s eastern district, are concerned that new types will be more expensive to raise and taste less than ideal.

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