According to recent studies, rising temperatures are expected to cause significant decreases in crop output by 2100, underscoring that climate change poses a severe threat to global crop yields. Two-thirds of the world’s calories come from major staple crops, such as rice, wheat, maize, soybeans, sorghum, and cassava, all of which face significant obstacles. Yields might decline by 28% in poorer locations and 41% in wealthier ones under a high-emissions scenario.

The wheat belt in northern India is particularly susceptible, with losses of up to 100% possible; however, rice may benefit in some areas due to its heat resistance. Only around one-third of losses can be reduced through farmers’ adaptive efforts, such as selecting more suitable crop types or implementing irrigation systems. With each degree Celsius of warming, daily calorie availability is reduced by 4.4%, equivalent to 120 calories per person, increasing the risk to food security.

Hunger and malnutrition concerns are exacerbated by the unequal regional effects, particularly in key breadbaskets. To protect the world’s food systems, immediate climate mitigation and investments in resilient farming methods are essential.

Global Crop Yield Projections

Forecasts for six core crops—rice, wheat, maize, soybean, sorghum, and cassava—show sharp drops in yield by 2100 in a high-emissions scenario. Global calorie supplies could be threatened by a 41% decline in wealthier countries and a 28% loss in poorer places. Wheat is most severely affected due to its exceptional heat sensitivity; northern and central India may experience total yield reductions. On the other hand, rice might benefit in some areas due to its ability to withstand warmer nights.

Given that two-thirds of the world’s calories come from staple crops, these differences demonstrate that climate change poses a severe threat to global crop yields. Unchecked emissions could seriously jeopardize food security; hence, mitigation and adaptable farming practices are urgently needed.

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Regional Variations and Adaptation Limits

Regional and crop-type differences in crop output losses are substantial. Europe, Africa, and South America may experience 15–25% decreases, while major wheat-producing nations such as China, Russia, the US, and Canada may face 30–40% losses. Cassava-dependent subsistence farmers are also in danger. While poorer, hotter climates may fare marginally better due to existing heat adaptations, wealthier regions—home to vital breadbaskets—will suffer exacerbated losses. By 2100, under high emissions, adaptive strategies such as improved crop types or irrigation can reduce losses by around one-third, with wheat benefiting the least and rice benefiting the most.

However, when wheat farmers’ wages rise, they may adopt riskier methods, which could lead to increased losses. Even with adaptation, the availability of calories may decrease by 4.4% for every degree Celsius of warming, resulting in 120 fewer calories per person per day worldwide. To address these complex issues, targeted food security policies and investments in resilient agricultural techniques are necessary. This uneven impact raises significant concerns about hunger and malnutrition.

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