China’s mega dam in Tibet results from the country’s plans to build the world’s largest dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River (Brahmaputra in India). The project of China’s mega dam in Tibet is included in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and aims to generate 300 billion kWh of electricity annually.

India, as a downstream country, faces serious concerns over water security, potential flash floods, and China’s upper riparian control. China has not disclosed full details of the dam, heightening India’s fears about its long-term impact on water availability.

China’s Mega Dam: Project Details & Strategic Importance

The hydropower project for the largest dam in the world is expected to surpass even the Three Gorges Dam in size and energy output. The project is expected to cost around $137 billion, making it one of the biggest infrastructure developments globally.

The dam is being built at the Great Bend of the Yarlung Zangbo, just before it enters Arunachal Pradesh, India. The dam is crucial for China’s green energy transition and reducing reliance on coal.

Impact on India: Water Security & Ecological Risks

• Flash floods & droughts can increase in consistency and intensity as China’s control over the river’s flow could lead to sudden water releases, causing flash floods in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, or restrict flow, leading to drought-like conditions.
• This can also reduce water supply. Any diversion of the Brahmaputra’s water could threaten India’s agriculture, drinking water supply, and hydroelectric projects in the northeast.
• Sediment blockage from the dam may trap sediments, affecting downstream soil fertility and fish populations in India and Bangladesh.
• There are significant seismic risks. The Tibetan Plateau is a highly earthquake-prone region, increasing the risk of dam failure, which could devastate areas downstream.

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Geopolitical Tensions & India’s Response

China’s upper riparian control as the country controlling the river’s source, China has the power to manipulate water flow, giving it a strategic advantage.

Water can be used as a weapon in the event of conflicts; China could release excess water, causing floods in India’s border regions.

India’s countermeasures begin with Arunachal Pradesh’s hydropower project. India is constructing its own dam on the Brahmaputra to reduce dependence on China.

Diplomatic efforts have been launched between India and China as with the lack of transparency and communication regarding the details of the dam; India is pressing for greater transparency and water-sharing agreements, with recent discussions between NSA Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Moreover, strengthening regional partnerships is crucial. India is working with Bangladesh, as the nation also depends on Brahmaputra waters, to create a unified stance against potential Chinese water control. With no formal water treaty between India and China, the situation underscores the growing risk of water becoming a geopolitical flashpoint in South Asia.

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