China recently began building a massive dam on Tibet’s Yarlung Tsangpo River as part of a hydropower project. Nearly three times the Three Gorges Dam’s capacity, 60 GW of electricity is anticipated to be produced by the $167 billion project. It is a major clean energy milestone in the nation’s 14th Five-Year Plan. But China’s Brahmaputra dam is already causing downstream nations like Bangladesh and India to worry about the dam’s effects.

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Project Data and Strategic Significance

The dam is situated right before the river enters Arunachal Pradesh, India, at the Great Bend. The dam is expected to produce roughly 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. It is equivalent to the entire annual electricity consumption of the United Kingdom. The dam is an engineering marvel and a significant milestone for energy potential, showcasing China’s greatest capabilities. The fact that Premier Li Qiang attended the first stone ceremony demonstrates how much China values this project both politically and in terms of energy capacity.

Source: X

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Risks and Implications for India

Hydrological Control

Indian experts are concerned, despite China’s insistence that it is a run-of-the-river. The river may change as a result of dam failures, which could cause Assamese flooding during the monsoon season because of sudden or delayed water releases. Local agriculture may also be impacted by decreased flow during dry seasons. The 2017 Doklam standoff, in which China failed to provide river data and permitted floods to occur in Assam that displaced over 400,000 people, had raised concerns about water spillover during the monsoon season.

Ecological Impact

The Brahmaputra basin is home to fisheries, wetlands, and forests. Changes in the river’s sediment flow will impact local biodiversity:

• A decline in soil fertility is expected.
• Overall, biodiversity will decrease.
• Assam and Arunachal Pradesh are likely to experience the most significant losses.

Geopolitical Pressure

Upstream control allows China to use the river as a tool in regional politics. Institutes like Lowy have noted that this dynamic strengthens China’s strategic position. Past data-withholding incidents have made these worries even more pressing.

Seismic Risks

Medog County’s location in an earthquake zone adds to the risks. Some experts, like Brahma Chellaney, have warned that China’s Brahmaputra dam could be one of the most dangerous hydro projects in the world.

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India’s Strategic Response

India is taking action through diplomacy and infrastructure:

• Engaging in talks under the Expert-Level Mechanism (ELM)
• Developing projects like the 10-GW Siang dam in Arunachal Pradesh
• Increasing cooperation with Bangladesh on water governance

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Can China Really Control the Brahmaputra’s Flow?

A significant percentage of the Brahmaputra’s flow, roughly 80–86%, originates within India through heavy rainfall and major tributaries. Only about 14-20% comes from upstream Tibet via glacier melt and limited rainfall.

The distribution of water and the dam’s run-of-the-river design reduce the risk of substantial downstream shortage. Some Assam leaders implied that it could even limit monsoon flooding with appropriate coordination.

Also Read: China Begins Construction Of World’s Largest Hydropower Dam In Tibet

The Way Forward

Even with some built-in safeguards, the dam’s size increases the likelihood of intentional and unintentional disruptions, especially in the absence of a water-sharing agreement. India’s stance is comprised of attention to detail, enhanced oversight, sustained diplomacy, infrastructure investment, and regional cooperation.

China’s dam on the Brahmaputra builds engineering and geopolitical interest. Continued work on transparency, collaboration, and readiness is important to ensure the protection of the livelihoods of millions of river-dependent downstream residents.

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