Canadian wildfires were twice as likely due to climate change, according to a new rapid attribution study released by World Weather Attribution (WWA). The analysis found that human-caused global warming has doubled the likelihood of the extreme fire weather conditions that fueled this summer’s devastating wildfires across the Northwest Territories and northwestern Ontario. Scientists examined factors such as heat, low rainfall, humidity, and wind using Canada’s Fire Weather Index and concluded that these dangerous conditions are now far more common in today’s warmer climate.

While the study has not yet undergone peer review, researchers say its findings align with decades of evidence showing that climate change is intensifying wildfire risk worldwide.

<img class="aligncenter wp-image-88201 size-full" src="https://sigmaearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Indias-Climate-Progress-720-x-480-px-1200-x-628-px-1080-x-1080-px-Website-2026-08-06T142850.475.png" alt="Canadian wildfires were twice as likely due to climate change” width=”1366″ height=”768″ />

Scientists Link Extreme Fire Weather to Global Warming

• The study compared today’s climate with a hypothetical pre-industrial world before large-scale fossil fuel emissions raised global temperatures by approximately 2.5°F (1.4°C).
• Researchers found that the weather conditions responsible for the Ontario fires, which might once have occurred only once in a lifetime, are now expected to occur roughly once every six years.

According to study co-author Jonathan Boucher of Canada’s Forest Service, climate change has significantly increased the probability of these extreme fire conditions, even though such weather events remain relatively uncommon.

Key Findings of the Study

Researchers noted that the study focused on the weather conditions that enable large wildfires, rather than directly attributing individual fires solely to climate change.

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Lightning Ignitions Became More Dangerous

The Canadian wildfires were twice as likely due to climate change, and the study emphasises that climate conditions, not just ignition sources, determine how rapidly fires spread.

Scientists said lightning ignited many of the largest fires in the Northwest Territories, where more than 5,000 square miles (12,950 square kilometers) burned. Once ignited, prolonged heat and exceptionally dry vegetation allowed the fires to spread rapidly beyond suppression efforts.

Fire experts estimate that although humans are responsible for roughly half of Canada’s wildfire ignitions, lightning-caused fires account for more than 90% of the country’s total burned area because they often occur in remote forests where rapid firefighting is difficult.

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Scientists Respond to Political Debate

The findings also come amid criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump, who blamed Canada for poor forest management after wildfire smoke affected several American cities.

However, climate scientists argue that the primary driver behind increasingly destructive wildfire seasons is the warming climate rather than forest management alone.

University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver said historical carbon emissions have played a major role in creating the conditions that allow fires to become larger and more intense. Study co-author Friederike Otto also stressed that reducing fossil fuel use remains one of the most effective ways to lower future wildfire risks.

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Canada’s Wildfire Challenge Continues to Grow

• Canada has warmed approximately 65% faster than the United States in recent decades, contributing to longer fire seasons and increasingly severe wildfire conditions.
• Over the past 30 years, the amount of land burned annually by Canadian wildfires has increased by roughly 50%, while the United States has experienced an even greater rise in burned area.

Scientists note that Canada’s vast northern forests present unique firefighting challenges. Many fires begin in remote spruce and pine forests far from airports or firefighting bases, leaving responders with only a narrow window to contain new ignitions before they become uncontrollable.

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