As world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP30, the warnings have never been more urgent: the Amazon nears an irreversible tipping point. The Amazon, which spans 6.9 million square kilometers and sustains over 34 million people, stretches across nine countries: Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. It houses unmatched biodiversity and the world’s largest river system, which is essential for regulating the global climate. However, the rainforest that Pope Francis called a “region of irresistible natural beauty” is now perilously close to ecological collapse.

Researchers report that the southern Amazon Basin is already exhibiting signs of transformation. Franco-Peruvian scientist Jhan-Carlo Espinoza, from the Institute of Research for Development (IRD), warns that “the forests in southern regions, like Bolivia’s Amazon, are starting to resemble the Cerrado savanna.” The unprecedented droughts of 2023 and 2024, along with the severe flooding in northern regions, demonstrate the escalation of instability in rainfall patterns.

Significant Consequences for the Water Cycle

The degradation of the Amazon has significant repercussions for carbon storage and the entire water system of the continent. Experts caution that if the Amazon nears an irreversible tipping point, it could trigger permanent changes in rainfall patterns across South America.

Key impacts include:

• Reduced Carbon Storage: The Amazon’s capacity to store carbon is diminished by deforestation, which accelerates global warming.
• Disrupted Rainfall: Trees recycle roughly 50% of the Amazon’s rainfall back into the atmosphere through evapotranspiration.
• Regional Water Scarcity: Deforestation in Brazil reduces rainfall in Bolivia, Peru, and other nations, jeopardizing agriculture and food security.
• Glacier Impact: The tropical Andes depend on moisture produced by Amazonian forests to sustain vital glaciers.

Deforestation and warming are coming together at perilous levels. Experts estimate that the ecosystem could collapse if forest loss exceeds 40%. At present, deforestation has affected 17% to 20% of the Amazon, an area equal to the combined size of France and Germany, while another 17% is subject to degradation from human activity.

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Expectations Ahead of COP30

As Amazon nears an irreversible tipping point, scientists and Indigenous leaders are calling for transformative policies. A member of the Science Panel for the Amazon, Espinoza calls for the implementation of national zero-deforestation strategies and for halting projects that fragment ecosystems, such as large dams and mining operations. He emphasizes the vital importance of Indigenous communities, as their lands act as natural shields against ecological collapse.

Key measures proposed include:

• Zero Deforestation Policies: National pledges to end all forest clearing.
• Global Market Accountability: Tackling the international demand for soy, beef, and gold that drives deforestation.
• Infrastructure Moratorium: Halting the building of dams that interfere with the river’s connection to the Andes.
• Indigenous Stewardship: Acknowledging Indigenous governance and providing direct access to climate finance.

The demands resonate with the appeals made by Indigenous coalitions at a meeting in Brasília in 2025, where leaders sought a more prominent voice in the UN climate framework. With COP30 taking place in Belém, their message is unmistakable: to save the Amazon, we must redefine humanity’s relationship to nature before the Amazon nears an irreversible tipping point and becomes a tragedy.

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