Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) once ranged widely across the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. Today, emerging studies highlight that Asian elephants’ range is shifting east, as South Asian habitats become less suitable under climate change and human pressures. This evolving distribution poses new challenges for conservation in regions not historically elephant zones.

Climate, Habitat Loss, and the Eastward Trend

The Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) expert workshop held in February 2025 summarised that while over 73% of the global Asian elephant population lives in South Asia, which is mainly in India and Sri Lanka, habitat suitability under future climate-land use scenarios is projected to decline there, while accelerating in parts of Southeast Asia. This projection means Asian elephants’ range is shifting to the east, not merely northward.

Historically, Asia has lost nearly 64% of land suitable for elephants (around 3 million km²), and this is because of deforestation, farming, and infrastructure expansion. This decline is especially severe in India and China, where over 80% of viable elephant habitat has been lost.

A recent physiological study shows that elephants in fragmented landscapes in Central India display elevated stress hormone levels and metabolic change, as habitat degradation gives rise to the cost of survival.

All these analyses support the pattern that Asian elephants’ range is shifting to the east, as eastern forested regions provide better connectivity and climatic adequacy.

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Key Impacts of the Eastward Shift

Human-elephant conflict intensifies in new zones

Elephants getting into unfamiliar territories meet communities unprepared for coexistence. As climate-driven shifts bring elephants into areas of Southeast Asia that historically had few elephants, crop damage, property loss, and fatal incidents are expected to accelerate. A study warns that many elephants in South Asia “cannot easily move east”, increasing conflict locally.

Loss of forest connectivity underscores movement

Although southeastern habitats may be more climatically favorable, fragmented corridors and infrastructure (roads, railways & plantations) restrict migration. Without restoration, elephants may remain abandoned in degraded patches.

Erosion of ancestral migration routes and gene flow

As elephants abandon long-used corridors, subpopulations become more off the map. Reductions in intervening habitat can interrupt seasonal movement and reduce genetic mixing, increasing the risk of inbreeding over time.

Threats to population viability and range stability

Core habitats in India and Sri Lanka may degrade further under heat, drought, and land conversion. Modelling suggests conflict risk will rise where climate suitability contracts and human pressure increase. In many projections, climate suitability declines overlap zones of growing human density.

As Asian elephants’ range is shifting to the east, competition for limited habitat, intensified human conflict, and biological stress are tied together to threaten long-term survival.

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Key Takeaway

The cumulative evidence, heavily drawn from many studies, points to an unmistakable trend: Asian elephants’ range is shifting east under the weight of climate change, habitat loss, and fragmentation. While South Asia retains much of the elephant population today, its future suitability is in danger.

To tackle this, conservation must adapt directionally. Protected area planning should expand toward Southeast Asia; cross-border coordination among India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and China is important. Ecological corridor restoration, conflict mitigation systems, mainly from community engagement to tracking technology, and immediate action in areas projected to become elephant habitat must be prioritized.

Recognising that Asian elephants’ range is shifting to the east is not just a descriptive perception; it should guide where we protect habitat, manage people-wildlife conflict, and protect ecological connectivity in a warming world.

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