A groundbreaking study published in One Earth on June 20, 2025, by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and collaborators, reveals that 60% of Earth’s surface is at great risk because of human-driven transgressions of planetary boundaries. Using a new open-source software package called boundaries, integrated with the LPJmL biosphere model, the team assessed four key planetary boundaries (PBs): land-system change, biosphere integrity, nitrogen flows, and freshwater change. All four are already exceeded, threatening the stability of ecosystems that regulate carbon, water, and nutrient cycles.

Figure 1. How the study assessed planetary boundaries. Source: One Earth.

60% of Earth’s Surface Is at Great Risk: What Does It Mean for the Biosphere?

The research introduces a new metric for biosphere integrity based on human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP), which measures how much of the planet’s photosynthetic energy humans consume.

• Safe threshold: 10% of pre-industrial levels
• Increasing risk: 10–20%
• High risk: >20%

At the global level, HANPP measures 18.4%, indicating that the biosphere is at an increasing risk. Of ice-free land, 60% has breached safe thresholds, including 38% that is high-risk. Surpassing these limits disturbs the ability of the biosphere to sustain its essential processes, resulting in biodiversity loss and an escalating climate emergency. The boundaries software provides a way to visualize these trajectories, demonstrating historical breaches from 1901 to 2017.

Figure 2. Temporal evolution of planetary boundary statuses (1901–2017). Source: One Earth.

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How Have Humans Driven This Crisis?

• Agriculture and land conversion: Natural forest cover has fallen to 69%, below the safe 75% target, driven by cropland expansion to 1,556 million hectares.
• Excess nitrogen use: Fertilizer overuse has produced a global nitrogen surplus of 95 Tg N yr⁻¹, well above the 35 Tg safe limit.
• Freshwater alterations: Deviations now affect 20.6% of land for blue water and 30.6% for green water, exceeding historical variability.

These forces often accumulate such that stress on one boundary may exacerbate risk from another boundary. The industrial form of practice throughout the 20th century added irrational overloads to these risks, underscoring the need for coordinated policy and a progressive approach to resource use.

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How Do Current Planetary Boundaries Compare to Safe Levels?

The table below shows the global status for the four PBs using 2008–2017 averages:

Nitrogen flows stand out as the most severe, already deep in high-risk territory, while biosphere integrity and freshwater changes show accelerating trends.

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Which Regions Are Most Vulnerable?

Regional analysis highlights hotspots:

• Europe, North America, and Asia: Over 50% of land in high-risk zones due to intensive agriculture.
• Tropical and Boreal Forests: Remaining cover ranges from 60–85%, threatening global biodiversity.
• China and the U.S. Midwest: Nitrogen overloads with runoff above 2 mg N L⁻¹.
• Middle East and India: Freshwater deviations in arid river basins.

Figure 3. Regional hotspots of planetary boundary transgression. Source: One Earth.

These patterns demonstrate why scientists warn that 60% of Earth’s surface is at great risk from cascading ecosystem pressures if no action is taken.

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What Historical Insights Does the Study Offer?

By examining data from 1901 onward, the research shows that today’s crisis has deep historical roots:

• Biosphere integrity was first breached more than 100 years ago.
• Land-system changes escalated in the 1930s.
• Freshwater deviations began before 1900.
• Nitrogen surpluses surged post-1960s Green Revolution.

Industrialization set the stage, and current pressures mean 60% of Earth’s surface is at great risk, building on centuries of exploitation.

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What Urgent Actions Do Scientists Recommend?

PIK Director Johan Rockström urges integrated policies linking climate action and biosphere protection. Suggested measures include:

• Reducing HANPP via sustainable agriculture and reforestation
• Optimizing nitrogen use to cut surpluses
• Restoring natural water cycles in river basins
• Expanding the boundaries of the software to include all nine planetary boundaries for scenario planning

People can help by practicing sustainable consumption, supporting sustainable agricultural practices, and lobbying for better environmental policies.

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FAQ

Q: What is the “boundaries” software?

A: An open-source R package that uses biosphere models such as LPJmL to compute and visualize planetary boundary transgressions.

How trustworthy are the 60% risk findings?

A: Based on validated LPJmL simulations, the findings indicate that 60% of the Earth’s surface is at high risk. It is advised to compare multiple models in order to eliminate uncertainty and validate patterns.

Q: Can individuals help?

A: Yes, through sustainable consumption, eco-friendly choices, and policy advocacy.

Q: Is collapse imminent?

A: Not immediately, but continued overshoot raises the risk of tipping points. Urgent action could reverse some trends.

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