A new analysis reveals that climate action is also profitable, highlighting how accelerated climate action could boost global GDP by 0.2% by 2040, providing an economic perspective as global leaders convene in Berlin for the Petersberg Climate Dialogue.

The recently released OECD and UN Development Programme’s analysis shows that bold climate policies could enhance productivity and innovation, with climate action boosting global GDP by 0.2% by 2040 compared to current trajectories.

This comes ahead of the COP30 summit in Brazil, where updated national climate plans (NDCs) will shape the world’s response to rising emissions and economic challenges.

How Climate Action Could Boost Global GDP by 0.2% by 2040

Efficient and innovative growth highlighted in the OECD-UN study highlights that investing in clean energy and energy efficiency could improve productivity, adding economic output equivalent to Sweden’s $600 billion GDP by 2040.

Carbon revenue reinvestment and recycling revenues from carbon pricing into infrastructure or tax cuts could amplify GDP gains and increase public support for climate measures. Offsetting costs as while policy shifts may raise prices or alter consumption, the study finds these impacts are outweighed by long-term economic benefits from sustainable systems.

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Risks of Inaction and Policy Uncertainty

GDP losses will occur with delayed or unclear climate policies and could shrink global GDP by 0.75% by 2030 as businesses hesitate to invest without predictable frameworks. NDCs will act as market signals with countries due to submit updated NDCs by September 2025; the study emphasizes that strong commitments provide certainty, unlocking private capital for green projects.

The warning aligns with concerns raised at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, where 40 nations are addressing setbacks like the U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration.

Global Climate Momentum

Held in Berlin in March 2025, this meeting sets the stage for COP30 in Belem, Brazil, focusing on fossil fuel phase-out and tripling renewable energy by 2030, per the 2023 Dubai summit goals.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stressed that dismissing climate action as costly ignores its economic upside, urging nations to act decisively. The Brazil summit in November 2025 will test whether countries can align ambitious NDCs with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target amid rising climate impacts.

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