India is seeing a significant climate trend that has so far proven elusive. A recent study by IPE-Global and Esri-India has discovered a worrisome “swapping trend” as districts in India are at risk from climate extremes, with previously flood-prone areas now experiencing droughts and vice versa. The study, which examined climatic data from 1973 to 2023, discovered that more than 85% of districts in India are at risk from climate extremes, with 45% experiencing the swapping phenomenon.

The study found that climate extremes’ frequency, intensity, and unpredictability had increased fourfold in recent decades, with a fivefold rise in the last decade alone. This tremendous transformation is transforming India’s climate risk picture at an unprecedented rate.

Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the study’s author ties these changes to a 0.6-degree Celsius temperature rise over the last century. He cautions that by 2036, more than 1.47 billion Indians may be very vulnerable to climatic extremes.

The study revealed particular geographical tendencies. The eastern zone districts are most vulnerable to extreme flood events, followed by the northeastern and southern zones. Southern India, particularly Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, is seeing a significant surge in drought conditions.

Several districts, including Srikakulum, Cuttack, Guntur, and Kurnool, have gone from flood to drought. Urban centres such as Bengaluru, Pune, Ahmedabad, Patna, and Prayagraj are experiencing the highest switching tendencies.

Experts emphasised the importance of conducting hyper-granular risk assessments and establishing climate risk observatories.

The research proposes establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) and an Infrastructure Climate Fund (ICF) to assist climate-resilient infrastructure and encourage locally-led climate action. The study found numerous worrying trends, such as extreme floods, most common in eastern, northeastern, and southern India. Drought conditions have increased in southern states such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka.

Urban areas like Bengaluru, Pune, Ahmedabad, Patna, and Prayagraj experience frequent “swapping trends” between floods and droughts. More than 60% of districts in states such as Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, and Rajasthan are experiencing extreme weather events.

Agendra Kumar, Managing Director of Esri India, emphasised the significance of geographic information systems (GIS) in enhancing climate resilience. He proposes that GIS-based solutions can assist stakeholders in better understanding and mitigating the sectoral effects of climate change.

As India deals with these altering climate patterns, the study emphasises the critical need for comprehensive, localised climate risk assessments and focused responses to protect lives, livelihoods, and the economy from the growing hazards of climate change.

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