The 2026 El Niño could become the strongest in 150 years, according to climate scientists monitoring rapidly changing conditions across the Pacific Ocean. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that El Niño has officially developed after a swift transition from La Niña earlier this year, a reversal considered relatively rare in climate science. Forecasters currently estimate a 63% probability that the event will intensify into a “very strong” El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially placing it among the most powerful events recorded since modern observations began in 1950.

Scientists also warn that an ongoing marine heatwave in the North Pacific, combined with rising global temperatures, could amplify its effects, increasing the risk of extreme weather, record-breaking heat, droughts, floods, and disruptions to agriculture and marine ecosystems worldwide.

Rapid Climate Shift Raises Concern

The rapid transition from La Niña to El Niño within a single year has drawn significant attention from climate experts. Normally, these climate patterns evolve more gradually, making this year’s reversal particularly noteworthy.

• The 2026 El Niño could become the strongest in 150 years if sea surface temperatures continue to rise across the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
• Informally referred to as a “Godzilla El Niño,” such events occur when ocean temperatures exceed 2°C above the long-term average, although this terminology is not officially used by meteorological agencies.

Researchers are also examining whether the unusually extensive marine heatwave that has persisted across parts of the North Pacific since late 2025 is contributing to the rapid strengthening of the event.

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Global Warming May Intensify the Impact

Scientists emphasize that climate change does not directly cause El Niño, but it significantly increases its potential consequences.

As global temperatures continue to rise due to greenhouse gas emissions, El Niño’s natural warming effect is added to an already warmer climate. This combination could drive new global temperature records, particularly during 2027, when El Niño’s influence on the atmosphere typically reaches its maximum.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the past decade has been the warmest on record, increasing concerns that another powerful El Niño could further accelerate heat-related impacts.

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Expected Weather Impacts Around the World

The developing El Niño is expected to influence weather patterns across multiple continents.

• Regions bordering the eastern Pacific may experience above-average rainfall and flooding, while Australia, Indonesia, and much of Southeast Asia face an increased likelihood of drought and water shortages.
• In the United States, El Niño typically shifts storm tracks farther south, bringing wetter conditions to southern states while increasing flood risks in some coastal areas.

Scientists caution that every El Niño event is unique, meaning local impacts may vary depending on regional atmospheric conditions.

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Risks for Agriculture and Marine Ecosystems

A strong El Niño can significantly affect food production, fisheries, and water availability.

• Higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns may reduce crop yields in drought-prone regions, while excessive rainfall elsewhere can damage farmland through flooding.

Marine ecosystems may also experience considerable stress.

• Warmer ocean temperatures can contribute to coral bleaching, alter fish migration patterns, and reduce marine productivity, affecting commercial fisheries across the Pacific.

The ongoing North Pacific marine heatwave is already raising concerns about additional pressure on marine biodiversity.

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Governments Urged to Prepare

Despite the alarming forecasts, scientists stress that forecasts remain probabilistic rather than certain. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions will continue to evolve over the coming months.

However, governments, farmers, water managers, emergency planners, and industries are being encouraged to prepare early for possible disruptions.

Advance planning could help reduce the impacts of droughts, floods, heatwaves, water shortages, agricultural losses, and energy demand spikes if the event strengthens as currently projected.

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Looking Ahead

While uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate intensity of the developing event, current forecasts indicate that the 2026 El Niño could become the strongest in 150 years, making it one of the most closely watched climate events in recent decades. With a high probability of intensifying through the Northern Hemisphere winter, scientists are closely monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions to refine forecasts.

If the event reaches its projected strength, its effects could extend well into 2027, influencing global temperatures, weather extremes, food security, water resources, and ecosystems across much of the world.

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