Percival Lowell, a well-known American astronomer in the early 1900s, spent fifteen years attempting to demonstrate that canals on Mars—the faint lines he saw through his telescope—were proof of sentient extraterrestrial life. Despite his training as a scientist and mathematician, Lowell’s preoccupation caused him to lose his ability to think critically and fit scant information into the story he wanted to tell. Internal combustion engine fans now run the risk of repeating Lowell’s foolishness as they support e-fuels, which are synthetic, carbon-neutral liquid fuels that can power current petrol or diesel vehicles without any changes. Is there any scientific support for carbon-neutral E-fuel, or are we selectively using data to support our cherished engines? I talked to Paddy Lowe, the creator of Zero Petroleum and a former Formula One engineer, to learn more about this. He provides a realistic viewpoint on synthetic fuels.

The Science Behind E-Fuels

Air, water, and renewable energy sources like the sun or wind create e-fuels. Electrolysis is the first step in the process, which separates water into hydrogen and oxygen while retaining the hydrogen. Direct air capture is then used to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. These components are mixed to create liquid hydrocarbons using the Fischer-Tropsch process, which has been around for a century and has been improved by Zero Petroleum using their exclusive “direct FT” technology. Carbon neutrality is reached when the amount of CO₂ released during burning equals the amount captured. At its Zero.1 plant in Bicester, Oxfordshire, Zero Petroleum uses solar energy to create small batches. By the end of 2025, the company hopes to increase production from single-digit litres per day to tens or hundreds. Synthetic fuels can be used in existing engines, such as those found in cars and aeroplanes, without requiring any modifications.

Why E-Fuels Matter Beyond Cars

Despite having a stellar Formula One career at Williams, Mercedes, and McLaren, Lowe isn’t motivated by a fondness for internal combustion engines. Despite acknowledging a human fondness for “burning,” he declares, “I’m not doing this to save the motor car.” His area of interest is applications where fundamental physics prevents electrification. A significant aeroplane, for example, cannot be electrified because liquid hydrocarbons have a higher energy density than batteries, which store electrons in heavy molecules. An aircraft that runs on batteries would be too heavy to launch. Also, hydrogen isn’t a solution because of its poor energy density, making large tanks necessary for commercial aeroplanes. However, carbon-neutral E-fuel is perfect in energy-intensive industries like industrial mining, vehicles, shipping, aviation, and agriculture, where liquid fuels are still the only practical choice for weight and space economy.

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The Efficiency Challenge and Economic Reality

Carbon-neutral E-fuel production requires a lot of energy. Although Lowe wants to increase this to 65%, about 45% of the renewable energy used is wasted as chemical energy in the fuel. Then, combustion engines squander more energy; only around 25% of the energy in gasoline-powered cars is converted into motion; the remainder is wasted as heat. On the other hand, a petrol car might only move 650 metres on the same amount of energy as an electric vehicle (EV), which can travel three miles per kilowatt-hour. When electrification is feasible, such as in passenger automobiles, this inefficiency reduces the viability of e-fuels. Economically speaking, e-fuels are now pricey—Zero’s 20-liter batch costs £50,000—but Lowe believes that if production increases and technology advances, prices might eventually equal those of fossil fuels in ten years. The sun, air, and water are free feedstocks, and industrial processes have historically become more affordable, as demonstrated by the development of mobile phones.

A Broader Role in the Green Energy Mix

According to Lowe, e-fuels are a component of a three-tiered green energy transition, including green hydrogen (for steel production, for example), renewable electricity, and e-fuels for areas that electrification cannot reach. The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources can be mitigated by strategically locating e-fuel factories close to them, such as offshore wind farms or solar arrays in deserts, which can store excess energy as liquid fuel. Since it is far less expensive to transport liquid fuel than electricity or hydrogen across large distances, e-fuels are called “energy logistics products.” According to Lowe, installing solar panels in 25% of Saudi Arabia could supply the world’s demand for fossil fuels; with increased solar efficiency, that amount might be cut in half. Although e-fuels won’t completely replace fossil fuels, they might work in tandem with other environmentally friendly technologies to enable the guilt-free usage of combustion engines, such as the V10 F1 engines Lowe misses, as a result of larger decarbonization initiatives.

A Balanced Future: E-Fuels as Part of the Mix

According to Lowe, e-fuels, green hydrogen, and renewable power are all components of a larger green energy transformation. “Renewable electrons, green hydrogen for steel production, and e-fuels are necessary,” he argues. E-fuels provide a route for complex industries to electrify, even though they might not completely replace fossil fuels. They also tackle the intermittent nature of renewable energy: an e-fuel facility adjacent to a wind farm can store excess energy produced during off-peak hours, such as overnight, as liquid fuel. The inefficiency of e-fuels will not be as significant if renewable energy sources become more affordable and plentiful. As a result of their wider use, e-fuels may help ICE enthusiasts maintain their favorite engines, such as the V10-era F1 units Lowe misses, which could reach 21,000 rpm. E-fuels are based on science rather than wishful thinking, unlike Percival Lowell’s Martian canals. Economics, infrastructure, and international collaboration are essential to their success. Still, Lowe’s realistic outlook provides a unique hope: a future in which we might have our cake, eat it, and be happy about it—without the threat of heat death.

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