Weather Experts Predict Extremely Active Atlantic Hurricane Season This Year

by | Apr 5, 2024 | Environmental News, Research Updates

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Weather forecasters at Colorado State University have forecasted that 2024 will be an “extremely active Atlantic hurricane season.” They anticipate a total of 23 storms, with five out of the projected 11 hurricanes potentially reaching major status, characterized by winds exceeding 178 kph. This prediction surpasses the typical annual average for hurricane seasons, which usually sees about 14 named storms of varying intensities. The heightened activity is attributed to warm ocean temperatures and weather patterns that are less conducive to dissipating storms during the summer and fall months. Additionally, the anticipated transition from the El Niño weather pattern to La Niña is expected to contribute to the development of cyclones with towering clouds and intense low-pressure centers across the Atlantic basin.

Weather Experts Predict Extremely Active Atlantic Hurricane Season This Year

The experts anticipate heightened activity, describing the season as “extremely active” with a chance of significant hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. According to their 44-page report released on Thursday, the 2024 season is expected to surpass the 1991-2020 average, with projections of 23 named storms and 115 named storm days. Typically, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Researchers forecasted a 62% probability of a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline, marking an increase from the average prediction of 43%. Similarly, along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the likelihood surged to 34%, a notable rise from the historical average of 21% spanning from 1880 to 2020. Along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, the probability saw a more significant increase, with researchers predicting a 42% chance in that region, up from the average of 27% in preceding years.

Another notable element expected to influence this extremely active Atlantic hurricane season is the emergence of La Niña in the eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña’s cooler waters tend to reduce wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean, creating conditions more conducive to the formation of tropical cyclones. With diminished wind shear, tropical disturbances are provided with greater chances to intensify and evolve into fully developed storms.

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  • Sarah Tancredi

    Sarah Tancredi is an experienced journalist and news reporter specializing in environmental and climate crisis issues. With a deep passion for the planet and a commitment to raising awareness about pressing environmental challenges, Sarah has dedicated her career to informing the public and promoting sustainable solutions. She strives to inspire individuals, communities, and policymakers to take action to safeguard our planet for future generations.

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