Gasoline Demand To Slow In 2024 Ahead Of EV Sales Growth In China & US

by | May 6, 2024 | Daily News, Environmental News

Home » Environmental News » Gasoline Demand To Slow In 2024 Ahead Of EV Sales Growth In China & US

Global gasoline demand growth is anticipated to decelerate in 2024 significantly. It will expectedly happen ahead of EV sales growth in China & the US. This will spell tightening refinery margins in the latter half of the year.

Analysts attribute this slowdown to accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in China and the United States. It’s also due to a return to pre-pandemic consumption levels.

EV sales growth in China & US

Electric Vehicle Shift Impacts Gasoline Demand

In projections reminiscent of 2020 figures, industry consultancy Wood Mackenzie forecasts a modest demand uptick of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. It’ll reportedly reach 26.5 million bpd globally.

This will mark a sharp decline from the 700,000 bpd increase recorded last year. The slowing growth reflects China nearing peak transport fuel demand and the United States surpassing this milestone.

Woodmac analyst Sushant Gupta noted, “Penetration of electric vehicles has been increasing in the U.S. and China”. He further added that Chinese demand is expected to expand by just 10,000 bpd in 2024. Gupta feels that it’s mainly due to heightened EV adoption.

Global Gasoline Consumption Trends And EV Sales Surge

Rystad Energy, another consultancy, estimates global gasoline demand to hover around 26 million bpd this year. They also expect a growth of about 300,000 bpd from 2023, fueled by post-pandemic consumption rebounds.

China, once a driving force behind gasoline demand, is poised to dominate EV sales in 2024. It’ll account for over half of global sales, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This shift is reflected in forecasts by China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). It projects a 1.3% increase in gasoline consumption this year.

With gasoline consumption growth slowing, refining margins are expected to remain pressured beyond the summer driving season. European markets, too, face challenges due to stagnant demand and competition from new refineries. For example, Nigeria’s Dangote facility could add a substantial gasoline supply to global markets.

Gasoline margins have seen an 85% increase across the United States and Asia this year. This increment is driven by expectations of robust summer demand. European margins, however, face pressure from increased competition and geopolitical disruptions.

Overall, before EV sales growth in China & the US, gas Demand will expectedly slow down. With this, the global energy landscape is poised for transformation. Market players, particularly in refining, will need to adapt to evolving consumer preferences and geopolitical factors that continue to shape the industry.

Also Read: Heat Wave In India Kills 9, Temperature Soars 46 Degrees

Author

  • Sarah Tancredi

    Sarah Tancredi is an experienced journalist and news reporter specializing in environmental and climate crisis issues. With a deep passion for the planet and a commitment to raising awareness about pressing environmental challenges, Sarah has dedicated her career to informing the public and promoting sustainable solutions. She strives to inspire individuals, communities, and policymakers to take action to safeguard our planet for future generations.

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